SAN JOSE -- Worldwide chip sales will rise 37% to $205 billion this year, followed by a 22% increase to $249 billion in 2001, but revenue growth will cool off a bit to 10% in 2002, according to a new forecast released today by the Semiconductor Industry Association here.
The new SIA forecast, which will be highlighted at the trade group's annual dinner tonight, shows semiconductor growth accelerating by 16% in 2003. The SIA forecast shows chip sales reaching $319 billion three years from now.
As with other industry forecasts, the SIA outlook shows a shift in what's driving new growth in the chip industry. "The PC is still a major growth driver, but for much of the industry there are faster growth opportunities associated with the new information-based economy," noted Wilfred J. Corrigan, chairman and chief executive officer of LSI Logic Corp. Corrigan, who will present the forecast at a press conference today, said communications applications will play a major role in moving the chip industry to the "$1 trillion goal in the next decade."
For the next three years, the Americas will remain the world's largest semiconductor market, according to the SIA forecast. The Americas will grow from $64 billion in 2000 to $96 billion in 2003. The fast-growing Asia Pacific region will be closing the gap with the Americas as the No.2 market for semiconductors. In 2000, Asia Pacific chip sales will reach $52 billion and grow to $85 billion in 2003, said the SIA forecast (see table below).
Digital signal processors will be one of the fastest growing chip market segments in the next three years. DSP sales are expected to grow from $6 billion in 2000 to $13 billion in 2003. DRAM sales are projected to grow from $31 billion this year to $52 billion in 2003. The microprocessor market will increase from $30 billion in 2000 to $39 billion in 2003, according to the SIA forecast.
The analog chip segment will increase from $31 billion this year to $47 billion in 2003, said the SIA forecast. Flash memory sales are projected to grow from $10 billion in 2000 to $23 billion in 2003. Microcontroller sales are expected to increase from $19 billion in 2000 to $$34 billion in 2003, said the SIA.
SIA chip forecast by regions
| Region |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
| Americas |
$64 billion (+34%) |
$77 billion (+21%) |
$83 billion (+9%) |
$96 billion (+16%) |
| Asia Pacific |
$52 billion (+41%) |
$65 billion (+24%) |
$72 billion (+12%) |
$85 billion (+18%) |
| Japan |
$46 billion (+42%) |
$56 billion (+22%) |
$62 billion (+10%) |
$72 billion (+16%) |
| Europe |
$42 billion (+33%) |
$51 billion (+21%) |
$57 billion (+10%) |
$66 billion (+17%) |
| Total |
$205 billion (+37%) |
$249 billion (+22%) |
$274 billion (+10%) |
$319 billion (+16%) |
| SIA forecast |
