NEW TRIPOLI, Pa.--Semiconductor capital equipment purchases will surge 76.1% to $44.7 billion in 2000 followed by another 45.9% increase to $65.2 billion in 2001, according to a new forecast released today by The Information Networks research firm here.
"Despite the current stock market volatility, every equipment company interviewed for this report is observing greater bookings and revenue as the semiconductor manufacturers are ramping for increased capacity and transitioning to 300-mm wafers and copper technology in 2002," said Robert N. Castellano, president of the New Tripoli research firm. "Thirteen new manufacturing fabs and 16 major expansions are slated for 2000 and 16 new fabs and 15 expansions in 2001.
"A total of 26 300-mm fabs will be build over the next few years," he added.
While chip stocks have been hit recently by concerns about softness in cellular handsets and PCs, Castellano believes the perception of slowdown will help to buffer a downturn in semiconductor equipment because device makers will begin to spread out their tool purchases. In the new market report, The Information Network said it believes the recent drop in book-to-bill for North American-based equipment suppliers is a seasonal adjustment and not an indicator of a real slump.
Last month, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group reported a book-to-bill ratio of 1.16 for September vs. a higher 1.23 ratio in August (see Oct. 23 story). The Pennsylvania research firm said SEMI's book-to-bill ratio has been the lowest in the month of September for four out of the last five years. The research firm's report predicted that the ratio will increase to above 1.3 by year's end
