SAN DIEGO -- Demand for silicon foundry services is expected to remain strong for the next couple of years, but some analysts believe that a capacity-glut could hit this booming market with a major thud by 2003.
At present, though, there is still a shortage of worldwide foundry capacity, as vendors report that their fabs remain fully booked. And, demand still remains robust for these services from both fabless semiconductor houses and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), said James Hines, analyst who tracks the industry segment for Dataquest Inc. of San Jose.
"We see the foundry market tripling by the time we get to 2003," said Hines in an interview after a presentation at the "Dataquest Semiconductors 2000" conference here today. "But I expect the market will move into an overcapacity situation in 2003 and 2004," he warned.
Hines projected that the worldwide silicon foundry market will have an annual compound growth rate of 25.4% from 1999 to 2004. In terms of total revenues, the silicon foundry market is projected to grow from $7.5 billion in 1999, to $11.5 billion in 2000, to $16.2 billion in 2001, to $20.4 billion by 2002, Hines said.
But in 2003 and 2004, the market will "flatten out" due to a period of "overspending" in fab capacity in this arena, he said. In terms of total sales, the foundry market will only grow from $22.3 billion in 2003, to $23.3 billion in 2004, he said.
For now, though, the market looks healthy, thanks in part to a surge in business from the IDMs, which own and operate wafer fabs. "The trend among many IDMs is to move to a fabless model," he said. "In the near term, IDMs will operate with "fab lite" model," added Hines, referring to one strategy to mix internal and external manufacturing sources. "Many other IDMs will make a transition into a foundry model."
